The objective of this study was to examine if physical activity can predict the development of type 2 diabetes during a 28-year follow-up, after controlling for childhood environment and genetic predisposition. The study population consisted of same-sex twin pairs born in Finland before 1958 from the Finnish Twin Cohort. The participants (20,487 individuals, including 8,182 complete twin pairs) were divided into quintiles of leisure-time physical activity metabolic equivalent (MET) index (MET hours/day). During follow-up, 1,082 type 2 diabetes cases were recorded. Results showed that leisure-time physical activity reduced the risk for type 2 diabetes when genetic predisposition and childhood home environment were controlled for by this twin design. In addition, any amount of physical activity seemed to reduce the risk of type 2 diabetes. More specifically, as little physical activity as 0.6-1.3 MET hour/day or 4.2-9.1 MET hours/week generated significant benefits compared with sedentariness. These results support the importance of recommending regular physical activity early in life to reduce the occurrence of type 2 diabetes.
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