A tool to estimate the 30-year risk of hard cardiovascular disease (CVD) events in individuals free of this condition at baseline has been developed in the Framingham Offspring Study. The 30-year hard CVD event rates adjusted for the competing risk of death were 7.6% for women and 18.3% for men. Standard risk factors such as male sex, systolic blood pressure, antihypertensive treatment, cholesterol and HDL cholesterol, smoking and diabetes measured at baseline were significantly related to the incidence of hard CVD events. Body mass index was positively associated with 30-year risk of hard CVD only in models that did not update risk factors. Finally, the 30-year risk model offered excellent discrimination and calibration.
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