Two simple scoring systems (basic and enhanced) that could identify adults at high risk of diabetes without using a 2-hour oral glucose tolerance test were developed in the ARIC study which followed individuals (n=9,587) for 14.9 years. The basic scoring system included waist circumference, maternal diabetes, paternal diabetes, hypertension, short stature, black race, age 55 years or older, increased weight, rapid pulse and smoking history. The 10-year incidence of diabetes associated with increasing quintiles of the basic score were 5.3%, 8.7%, 15.5%, 24.5% and 33.0%. Variables included in the enhanced system were glucose, waist circumference, maternal diabetes, paternal diabetes, triglycerides, black race, HDL cholesterol, short stature, high uric acid, age 55 years or older, hypertension, rapid pulse and nonuse of alcohol. The respective 10-year incidence of diabetes by enhanced risk score quintiles were 3.5%, 6.4%, 11.5%, 19.3% and 46.1%. Thus, basic information is helpful to identify patients at high risk of diabetes although the identification is improved when information provided by fasting blood tests is added.
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