Changes in triglyceride levels and the risk of developing diabetes were examined in the Metabolic, Life-Style, and Nutritional Assessment in Young Adults (MELANY) study, where 322 cases of diabetes occurred during the follow-up of 5.5 years in the 13,953 healthy men with baseline triglyceride levels <3.39 mmol/l. Increasing triglyceride levels during the follow-up were associated with incident diabetes. Moreover, men in the lowest tertile of triglycerides at baseline who progressed to the highest tertile at the end of the follow-up had a hazard ratio (HR) for diabetes of 12.62 (95% CI, 3.52-31.34). The HR for men who continued to have elevated triglyceride concentrations at the two examinations was 7.08 (95% CI, 2.52-14.45), while the HR for men who had elevated triglyceride concentrations initially but decreased to the lowest tertile at the second examination was 1.97 (95% CI, 0.67-6.13). Therefore, measurement and follow-up of triglyceride levels can be beneficial in identifying apparently healthy men at increased risk of diabetes, independent of traditional risk factors. These results suggest that lowering triglyceride concentrations with lipid-lowering drugs or lifestyle modifications will likely reduce the risk of developing diabetes.
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